Best QB and RB prop bets, picks and tips for Super Bowl LVII
Super Bowl LVII is just over a week away and now is the perfect time to get ahead on all of the bets that will coming in up until kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Phoenix at 6:30 p.m. ET. Much of the game might come down to the performances of the star QBs and featured RBs on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Patrick Mahomes threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the Chiefs win over the Bengals in the AFC Championship game while Jalen Hurts had 121 yards through the air and 39 yards on the ground with one rushing touchdown in the Eagles’ victory in the NFC Championship game.
Can both QBs repeat their success in the Super Bowl and how will the running backs factor into the gameplan? Our betting analysts have got you covered with everything you need to know about QB and RB props for the big game.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes, the likely league MVP, goes for his second Super Bowl title, while Jalen Hurts tries to cap off a magical season with his first. Taking a look at the board, which is your favorite Super Bowl prop for the two QBs?
Doug Kezirian: This is a fascinating matchup on so many fronts and thus, I find it difficult to unlock value on the generic props. The market is pretty tight on these passing yard props but I do believe that Mahomes’ injury provides some opportunity. He is 20-1 to score the game’s first touchdown. For those new to this space, he must run or catch the TD in order to cash the wager. Given his ankle will have two more weeks of rest and treatment and adrenaline will be flowing, I think that’s a decent price. You might also recall he ran for the first score in his lone Super Bowl win.
Tyler Fulghum: The Chiefs operate as a slight pass-funnel defense, so I expect Nick Sirianni and the Eagles to lean into the passing game. I also expect Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to keep it competitive for four quarters, unlike the Giants and 49ers did during the NFC postseason. My favorite QB prop is Jalen Hurts over 31.5 passing attempts. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should have significant matchup advantages against a young KC secondary that might also now be missing CB L’Jarius Sneed for the Super Bowl. I expect the Eagles to aggressively test that matchup with their superior receivers.
Erin Dolan: Jalen Hurts to throw a TD pass in the first quarter (+215). The Eagles scored a league-high 62 points on opening drives in the regular season and have scored an opening drive touchdown in each playoff game so far. It’s a big reason why they led on a league-high 62% of game-time this season. Against the Giants, Hurts threw a pass to Devonta Smith in the opening quarter. He failed to have a passing touchdown against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, Chiefs secondary has been getting burnt during the regular season and playoffs. I like the value here at +215, especially with a game total sitting a 50.5.
Aaron Schatz: Jalen Hurts only threw six interceptions this year. However, a better guide to interceptions is to look at passes defensed. Usually, about 20% of passes defensed turn into interceptions. This year, it was only 14% for the Eagles offense … and only 14% for the Chiefs defense. These numbers suggest that the chances of a Hurts pick are probably higher than the standard interception numbers indicate. So I’ll take the positive odds and go with Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+110).
Eric Moody: Mahomes’ passing ability has been a huge factor in the Chiefs’ success and I don’t expect them to change direction this time around. In the regular season and playoffs this season, he has averaged 37.9 passing attempts and 303.7 passing yards per game. You might be wondering how Mahomes has performed as a passer in his two Super Bowl appearances. He threw for 286 yards and 270 yards. In those two games, Mahomes relied heavily on Travis Kelce. That trend should continue against the Eagles. Head coach Andy Reid will find weaknesses in Philadelphia’s secondary with two weeks to prepare. Over 288.5 pass yards.
Running back props
Which player do you think will go over or under their rushing total this week?
Kezirian: I would only play Pacheco, and I would only play his combined yards. He’s been the featured back, but often he is catching balls. Obviously, Mahomes’ ankle is a variable so there’s a chance he dumps it off to Pacheco more often than he normally would. Pacheco also has the big-play availability and seemingly is shot out of a cannon. So I would take over 64.5 combined yards.
Fulghum: I was surprised that Isiah Pacheco outsnapped Jerick McKinnon 39-27 in the AFC title game. With Patrick Mahomes on a gimpy ankle, I believe Andy Reid will lean into more McKinnon as he’s the superior pass protector and receiver out of the backfield. Pacheco rewarded Reid’s belief in him with 85 yards of offense on 15 touches. He was explosive and effective. Meanwhile, McKinnon — who likely won a lot of people a fantasy football championship with his production in December — has fallen off in the postseason. He’s rushed 15 times for just 26 in two playoff games and has hauled in just two passes for 17 yards. Since Week 15, McKinnon has managed just 43 rushing yards on 24 carries. I think the Chiefs are going to continue to ride Pacheco on the ground, so I like Jerick McKinnon under 22.5 rushing yards.
Schatz: Big games by opposing running backs were the connecting string through most of the Eagles’ lesser performances this season. So, I’m going to guess that the Chiefs will stick with the ground game more than they usually do, knowing that’s the Eagles’ (relative) weakness. Give me Isiah Pacheco over 49.5 rushing yards. I’m staying away from the combined rushing-receiving total because while the Eagles allowed a high DVOA to running backs, they did not allow a lot of receiving yards.
Dolan: Kenneth Gainwell under 19.5 rushing yards. He crushed this number this post season with 112 rushing yards against the Giants and 48 rushing yards against the 49ers. Keep in mind the Eagles outscored those opponents 69-14. That was why he got so much action this postseason. I believe that Hurts and company will rely on the passing game as that is the Chiefs weakness on defense. Should the Eagles lean on the run game, I believe they will give the ball to Miles Sanders.
Moody: I agree with Doug about playing Pacheco over rushing + receiving yards. The Chiefs offense has relied more on him as a receiver out of the backfield so far in the playoffs. In Pacheco’s two playoff games, he caught six of seven targets for 65 yards along with 121 rushing yards on 22 attempts. He’ll continue to be heavily involved against the Eagles. The Chiefs offensive line against the Eagles defensive line intrigues me. An offensive line’s performance affects the entire offense of a team. Among the things I noticed about the Chiefs’ offensive line is that they don’t allow their running backs to be tackled behind the line of scrimmage. With Joe Thuney, Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey on the interior, Kansas City has a significant advantage. As the Chiefs attempt to slow down the Eagles pass rush, they will look to exploit this advantage in the running game. Pacheco over 64.5 rushing + receiving yards.